NASCAR is very different than other major sports like the NFL, NBA, or MLB, in several ways. Most obviously, those sports feature a pair of teams competing. There’s one winner and one loser – something about ties and kissing your sister. In the Cup Series, there’s one winner and 35 or more losers each race, or as Ricky Bobby so beautifully described it: “If you ain’t first, you’re last.” However, it’s not that simple.
Losing is relative in a NASCAR race. The second-place finisher is technically a loser and didn’t win the race, but earned the second-highest purse and points, and finished inside the top 10, which is typically deemed a solid race by even the best teams in the business like Hendrick Motorsports and Joe Gibbs Racing. But there’s a big catch in racing that makes it even more appealing to its fans – where a driver finishes isn’t always reflective of their true performance throughout the duration of the race. That’s because crazy things can and often do happen to decide the end of races, sometimes allowing surprise finishes and winners.
The season-opening Daytona 500, the Super Bowl of NASCAR, is the perfect example. There have been plenty of drivers not talked about during the race because they weren’t in contention but when it mattered most, moved up front late – more than likely after a restart – and led a single lap, the most important one, to claim victory and hoist the Harley J. Earl Trophy. Michael McDowell did it most recently in 2021.
That unexpected situation can realistically happen in every single race. While this uncertainty can be exciting, it can also be confusing for fans who might not have watched the full race and just saw the finishing result. As detailed, the final result doesn’t necessarily tell the complete picture of whether or not a driver had a good race.
That’s where we come in to help with our Simple Single-Race Rating System, which will allow any fan a quick glance to see if their driver had a good or bad race.
We start by working with our friends at Win the Race and their massive amounts of data provided, including their proprietary True Performance Ranks, which is a system that ranks a driver based on various criteria and their performance throughout the race, not how they finished. Combining the average 2023 True Performance Ranks and average 2023 finish on a specific style of track (short, intermediate, road, superspeedways) with the actual TPR ranks on that track from the two previous races, we divide it by four, and have our baseline number for the race.
| Driver | Daytona | Atlanta | Las Vegas | Phoenix | Bristol | COTA | Richmond | Martinsville | Texas | Talladega | Dover | Kansas | Darlington | Charlotte | Gateway | Sonoma | Iowa | New Hampshire | Nashville | Chicago | Pocono | Indianapolis | Richmond 2 | Michigan | Daytona 2 | Atlanta 2 | Watkins Glen | Bristol 2 | Kansas 2 | Talladega 2 | Roval | Las Vegas 2 | Homestead | Martinsville 2 | Phoenix 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 - Ross Chastain | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 - Austin Cindric | -1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 - Austin Dillon | -1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 - Josh Berry | -1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | N/A | N/A | 1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5- Kyle Larson | -1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 - Brad Keselowski | -1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 - Corey LaJoie | -1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 - Kyle Busch | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 - Chase Elliott | 1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 - Noah Gragson | 1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 - Denny Hamlin | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 - Ryan Blaney | -1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 14 - Chase Briscoe | -1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 15 - Kaz Grala | N/A | N/A | N/A | NA | NA | N/A | -1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 17 - Chris Buescher | -1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 19 - Martin Truex Jr. | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 - Christopher Bell | 1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 21 - Harrison Burton | -1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 22 - Joey Logano | 1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 23 - Bubba Wallace | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 24 - William Byron | 1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 31 - Daniel Hemric | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | -1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 34 - Michael McDowell | -1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 38 - Todd Gilliland | -1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 41 - Ryan Preece | -1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 42 - John Hunter Nemechek | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | -1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 43 - Erik Jones | 1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 45 - Tyler Reddick | 1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 47 - Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 48 - Alex Bowman | 1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 51 - Justin Haley | -1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 54 - Ty Gibbs | -1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 71 - Zane Smith | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 | -1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 77 - Carson Hocevar | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 | -1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 99 - Daniel Suarez | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 1 |
| Driver | Daytona | Atlanta | Las Vegas | Phoenix | Bristol | COTA | Richmond | Martinsville | Texas | Talladega | Dover | Kansas | Darlington | Charlotte | Gateway | Sonoma | Iowa | New Hampshire | Nashville | Chicago | Pocono | Indianapolis | Richmond 2 | Michigan | Daytona 2 | Atlanta 2 | Watkins Glen | Bristol 2 | Kansas 2 | Talladega 2 | Roval | Las Vegas 2 | Homestead | Martinsville 2 | Phoenix 2 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 - Ross Chastain | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 2 - Austin Cindric | -1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 3 - Austin Dillon | -1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 4 - Josh Berry | -1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | N/A | N/A | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 5- Kyle Larson | -1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 6 - Brad Keselowski | -1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 7 - Corey LaJoie | -1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 8 - Kyle Busch | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 9 - Chase Elliott | 1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 10 - Noah Gragson | 1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 11 - Denny Hamlin | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 12 - Ryan Blaney | -1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 14 - Chase Briscoe | -1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 15 - Kaz Grala | N/A | N/A | N/A | NA | NA | N/A | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 17 - Chris Buescher | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 19 - Martin Truex Jr. | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 20 - Christopher Bell | 1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 21 - Harrison Burton | -1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 22 - Joey Logano | 1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 23 - Bubba Wallace | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 24 - William Byron | 1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 31 - Daniel Hemric | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 34 - Michael McDowell | -1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 38 - Todd Gilliland | -1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 41 - Ryan Preece | -1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 42 - John Hunter Nemechek | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 43 - Erik Jones | 1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 45 - Tyler Reddick | 1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 47 - Ricky Stenhouse Jr. | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 48 - Alex Bowman | 1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 51 - Justin Haley | -1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 54 - Ty Gibbs | -1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 71 - Zane Smith | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 77 - Carson Hocevar | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 99 - Daniel Suarez | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1 |
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